The “Three Steps and a Stumble” Rule.
It argues that should the Federal Reserve raise the discount rate three times in
succession, a bear market in stocks follows!
In the 12 times over the last 80 years when the Fed has tightened like this, the stock
market has fallen into a bear market.
The Fed raised rates in December 2015, then again in December 2016 — and the Fed
has promised three more rate hikes in 2017 to counter Trump’s “pro-growth” policies.
Another interest rate hike by the Fed would trigger this rule in 2017. Yet it is U.S. long-
term Treasury bonds, particularly relative to the Dow, that have now become extremely